Latest data from the CMHC reveals an uneven story across Canada
The graph showing Canadian housing starts in 2024 looks a little like a mountain range, given the prevalence of peaks next to valleys, but is there any good news for affordability?
While sales were up last month by almost 8% month-over-month, helped by rate cuts, listings were down 3.5% and prices were essentially flat, meaning challenging times for those hoping to get a foothold on the housing ladder.
New data from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation shows that the six month moving average (of the seasonally adjusted annual rate) for all housing starts nationwide was essentially flat in October at 243,522 units.
When looking at urban centres – and comparing the actual housing starts year-to-date (up to the end of October) last year to this year, there was also little change – 188,567 in 2024 vs. 187,722 in 2023.
There was a 6% rise in the monthly SAAR for total urban units but this was driven by a 7% gain for the multi-unit segment compared with just 1% for single-detached.
The stats also reveal the uneven picture across Canada with Toronto and Vancouver following a bumper year for actual housing starts in 2023 with decreases of 24% and 18% respectively for the first 10 months of this year. By contrast, Montreal saw a 12% rise.
However, monthly SAAR housing starts were up 44% in Toronto and 30% in Vancouver with Montreal up 25%.
"Actual year-to-date housing starts are similar to last year, but we continue to see higher activity in the Prairie provinces, Québec and the Atlantic provinces, while Ontario and British Columbia have seen declines in all housing types,” said Bob Dugan, CMHC's chief economist. “The increases in the monthly SAAR in Toronto and Vancouver are a promising sign for Ontario and British Columbia, as they drove the national SAAR increase in October. Despite these results, we remain well below what is required to restore affordability in Canada's urban centres."
The latest Scotiabank Housing Poll indicates that despite challenges, the desire for homeownership remains strong among younger Canadians.
