The provincial outlook has improved again
While things are trending on the upside for Canada’s federal economy, there is also plenty to be optimistic about at a provincial level.
The latest economic forecast from TD Economics says Alberta and Quebec have received the largest upgrade in outlook due to their “robust momentum” with Alberta leading provincial growth thanks to increased oil output followed by BC and Ontario, both led by consumer spending.
However, longer term there will be an easing of provincial growth, TD says, as the current pace is unsustainable. By 2019, it expects a less-than-2% pace.
Ontario’s growth is underpinned by strong consumer spending, driven by the growth in property prices in recent years, although housing has since slowed. Employment is strong but TD warns that the new minimum wage is likely to impact that with a net 85-90 thousand jobs lost by the end of the decade.
Growth is forecast to slow in the province from 3% in 2017 to 1.8% next year and 1.7% in 2019.
For British Columbia, the housing market has also taken a hit but the province is forecast for 3% growth in 2017. While employment is strong, wage growth is not; and with rising interest rates, TD expects a slowdown in consumer spending, with provincial growth slipping to just above 2% in 2018 and 1.7% in 2019.
Quebec’s economic growth has been the strongest since 2002, with just under 3% projected for 2017. Manufacturing remains strong in the province, boosting the labour market. Growth is expected to ease though to just above 2% in 2018 and 1.5% in 2019.
Alberta is on track for a 4.2% growth in the economy for this year as the effects of the wildfires eases and increased oil production takes hold. That pace will slow to 2.7% in 2018 and 1.9% in 2019.
The full report is available from TD.
The latest economic forecast from TD Economics says Alberta and Quebec have received the largest upgrade in outlook due to their “robust momentum” with Alberta leading provincial growth thanks to increased oil output followed by BC and Ontario, both led by consumer spending.
However, longer term there will be an easing of provincial growth, TD says, as the current pace is unsustainable. By 2019, it expects a less-than-2% pace.
Ontario’s growth is underpinned by strong consumer spending, driven by the growth in property prices in recent years, although housing has since slowed. Employment is strong but TD warns that the new minimum wage is likely to impact that with a net 85-90 thousand jobs lost by the end of the decade.
Growth is forecast to slow in the province from 3% in 2017 to 1.8% next year and 1.7% in 2019.
For British Columbia, the housing market has also taken a hit but the province is forecast for 3% growth in 2017. While employment is strong, wage growth is not; and with rising interest rates, TD expects a slowdown in consumer spending, with provincial growth slipping to just above 2% in 2018 and 1.7% in 2019.
Quebec’s economic growth has been the strongest since 2002, with just under 3% projected for 2017. Manufacturing remains strong in the province, boosting the labour market. Growth is expected to ease though to just above 2% in 2018 and 1.5% in 2019.
Alberta is on track for a 4.2% growth in the economy for this year as the effects of the wildfires eases and increased oil production takes hold. That pace will slow to 2.7% in 2018 and 1.9% in 2019.
The full report is available from TD.
