Following a CPI print well under target and worrying GDP numbers, the BoC makes its biggest cutting decision yet
The Bank of Canada has announced that it will cut its overnight interest rate by 0.5 per cent, bringing the central bank’s policy interest rate down to 3.75 per cent.
The announcement comes after a September CPI print that surprised to the downside, coming in at 1.6 per cent, well below the BoC’s target rate of 2 per cent.
Other metrics favoured by the BoC showed slightly elevated inflation, with CPI-trim at 2.4 per cent and CPI-median at 2.3 per cent. The topline number was skewed somewhat by a significant drop in oil prices. Nevertheless, the significant slowdown in inflation points to the possibility that the BoC held rates too high for too long. It has given BoC governor Tiff Macklem to make this cut.
“With inflation now back around the 2% target, Governing Council decided to reduce the policy rate by 50 basis points to support economic growth and keep inflation close to the middle of the 1% to 3% range. If the economy evolves broadly in line with our latest forecast, we expect to reduce the policy rate further,” a press release accompanying the announcement reads. “However, the timing and pace of further reductions in the policy rate will be guided by incoming information and our assessment of its implications for the inflation outlook. We will take decisions one meeting at a time.”
The widespread consensus going into this morning’s announcement was that the BoC would cut rates by 0.5 per cent. While the drop in CPI was core to those predictions, analysts cited the wider slowing of the Canadian economy — especially relative to the US. Weakness in the labour market continues to be an area that analysts cite in predicting future cuts.
“In Canada, the economy grew at around 2% in the first half of the year and we expect growth of 1¾% in the second half. Consumption has continued to grow but is declining on a per person basis,” the release reads. “GDP growth is forecast to strengthen gradually over the projection horizon, supported by lower interest rates. This forecast largely reflects the net effect of a gradual pick up in consumer spending per person and slower population growth… Overall, the Bank forecasts GDP growth of 1.2% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025, and 2.3% in 2026. As the economy strengthens, excess supply is gradually absorbed.”
