But sentiment is holding regarding personal finances and job security
With tariffs looming like a dark cloud over the Canadian economy, consumers are feeling the pressure and are turning increasingly pessimistic about the direction of travel.
The weekly Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index shows that the percentage of respondents who think the economy will be worse in six months from now was up to 65.20 last week, the highest it’s been since June 2020, as the pandemic was raging. The score for those that believe the economy will improve by the fall was little more than 10.
The overall index declined to 47.41, in line with the previous week but down from the 2025 high so far of 51.57 at the end of January, and below the overall all-time index average of 55.16. A score below 50 indicates net negative confidence and the index posted its all-time low of 37.08 in April 2020 and a high of 66.42 in July 2021.
“Consumer confidence continues to decline largely on negative views on the future strength of the Canadian economy which has neared a high not seen since the global pandemic in June 2020,” said chief data scientist Nik Nanos.
Digging down into the data, there are some positives. Job security gets a ‘secure’ score of 47.0 while the ‘not secure’ reading is 8.42, and for real estate prices a net 41.64 score leads for ‘stay the same’ closely followed by 33.87 for ‘increase’ with just 17.18 for ‘decrease.’
However, expectations for personal finances, while led by ‘no change’ at 44.66, the ‘worse off’ reading is 39.52 compared to just 13.91 for ‘better off.’
Respondents in Atlantic Canada and the Prairies showed weakened economic mood week-over-week while those in Ontario, BC, and Quebec were more optimistic. Under 40s were less confident, while over 40s increased confidence, and the lowest earners (up to $15K) were most likely to feel less confident with other groups either broadly unchanged or slightly improved.
