Statistics Canada has published a new population projection
The Canadian population – currently more than 41 million - will continue to get larger and older over the years ahead, but what does Statistics Canada project the scale of that growth to be?
The agency published a new population projection Monday which suggests there could be 87 million Canadians with up to one third of them over the age of 65. But, spoiler alert, that won’t be for another 50 years – and they are the upper limits of the projections.
Shorter term though, the growth in population has accelerated since Statistics Canada released its previous projection in 2022 with increased immigration offset by record-low fertility and an annual decrease in life expectancy since 2020.
While the new figures could become reality, they are projections not predictions and make many assumptions based on current trends and expert opinions, which of course could change.
The Canadian population was estimated to be 40.1 million in 2023, but this could grow to between 47.1 million and 87.2 million by 2073, with medium growth resulting in just short of 63 million. Whatever the outcome, migration is set to have the biggest impact, rather than the natural flow of births and deaths.
For those considering the impact on retirement planning, the cohort of Canadians aged 65 and older is set to grow from around 19% in 2023 to between 22% and 32% by 2073. After 2030, the growth of this section of the population is expected to slow as all Boomers will be 65+ and that generation will also account for most aged 85+ from 2031 to 2050 with greater healthcare required.
As other generations age, the 85+ cohort could be between 3.3 million and 4.3 million by 2073, compared to 896,600 in 2023.
The average age of the Canadian population is projected to rise from 41.6 years in 2023 to between 42.6 and 50.1 years by 2073.
The stats also project that Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and Quebec will all see decreases in population over the next 50 years, although Quebec along with Ontario would still be the most populous provinces. Saskatchewan, Alberta, and British Columbia are all expected to increase their populations in the 50-year period.
