But is the broad decline indicative of a slowing economy, or just an anomaly?
With ten days to go before the Bank of Canada announces its next interest rate decision, one measure of economic resilience has taken a hit.
Retail sales were down 0.2% in March to $66.4 billion, while core retail sales, excluding gasoline stations and fuel vendors and motor vehicle and parts dealers, was down 0.6%, the first decline in four months. Sales volume was down 0.4% overall.
The broad decline in sales included seven of nine subsectors and was led by furniture, home furnishings, electronics and appliances retailers, the Statistics Canada data shows. Clothing, luggage, sporting goods, musical instruments, and hobby retailers were all among those that recorded reduced sales in March, while building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers gained.
Motor vehicle and parts dealers saw increased sales too, offsetting the decline in core retail sales, led by sales of new cars while used cars posted a decline.
The overall decline in sales was across sic provinces, led by Ontario and Saskatchewan, while Quebec saw the largest gain. Meanwhile, retail e-commerce sales were up 3.0% to $4.0 billion in March, accounting for 6.0% of total retail trade, compared with 5.8% in February (seasonally adjusted).
Bounceback in April?
March included the early Easter holiday weekend in 2024, which may have impacted sales, and Statistics Canada’s preliminary data for April suggests a rebound is ahead.
The unofficial estimate, based on responses from 51% of companies surveyed, is 0.7% for April, although this will be revised.
Data is very much in focus ahead of the BoC interest rate decision on June 5, with major Canadian bank economists uncertain that there will be a change this time, with July considered more likely.
