Interest rate could hit 6% by 2020

by Neil Sharma

Interest rates could hit 6% by 2020, according to Moody’s Analytics.

The prediction, using RPS data, is based on policymakers realizing plans to quell housing bubbles in Toronto and Vancouver, as well as on rising interest rates.

“Two macroeconomic projects now dominate housing markets in Canada,” said Andres Carbacho-Burgos, a Moody’s economist. “The first is that the [Bank of Canada] will continue to tighten short-term interest rates through 2020 in order to head off inflation and also maintain the value of the Canadian dollar relative to its U.S. counterpart.

“With some lag, monetary tightening will pull up mortgage rates. The five-year mortgage rate is now at about 4.4% after bottoming out at 3.6% in mid-2017; the Moody’s Analytics baseline projection is that it will continue to increase until it levels off at about 6% in late 2020.”

Prolonged North American Free Trade Agreement negotiations have only deferred the Bank of Canada’s rate hiking mandate, but with the federal government this week finalizing a new deal, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, there will almost certainly be a hike on Oct. 24.

“Overall, when it comes to the new USMCA, it’s going to affect the housing market because interest rates are bound to go up,” said Samantha Brookes, founder of Mortgages of Canada. “The Bank of Canada was holding back the rate until there was an agreement. Now, we’ll get increases based on the way the economy has been performing, and what that means for Canadians is interest rates will go up and prices will continue to adjust.”

That will likely make conditions favourable for buyers as the market continues recovering from the shock of so many changes.

“I believe it will probably take until 2020 until we see some light at the end of the tunnel,” she said. “But that’s based on the correction that’s been happening over the last year. People need to be more creative with how they’re purchasing.”