But some believe there could be a cut by the end of the year
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The Bank of Canada will be making its latest decision on interest rates next week but there is little expectation of a hike from the current 1.75% overnight rate according to a panel of leading economists.
Last week BoC governor Stephen Poloz gave no clue to its likely decision, but it is expecting a slowing of growth this quarter.
The Bank of Canada Overnight Rate Survey from global comparison site Finder.com polled 11 economists including Brian DePratto from TD, Sherry Cooper from Dominion Lending Centres, and Hubert Marleau of Montreal-based wealth manager Palos Capital.
“Other than an overheating housing market in many major cities, there is still much economic uncertainty. A wait-and-see approach is prudent until the economy is clearly pointed in one direction or another,” commented panelist Moshe Lander, Economics Professor at Concordia University.
Alicia MacDonald, panelist and principal economist at the Conference Board of Canada added that the BoC is predicting a significant slowdown in economic growth this quarter, meaning it can be cautious on rate rises.
Could there be a cut in rates this year?
The hold steady predicted for March may only be in place until the summer with five of the economists predicting a rate increase in July. Three say it will rise in October.
But two of the 11 panelists believe there will be a decrease this year; Gregory C Mason, Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Manitoba, thinks it will drop on July 11 and Hubert Marleau, Chairman at Palos Capital, is forecasting a fall on October 30th.
The economists also gave their opinion on housing policy with 5 calling for changes to zoning and regulation. On the mortgage stress tests, 45% said it was “about right” while 27% felt the rule could be stronger and 18% said they were too severe.
