A raft of data highlights the continued uncertainty of the recovery as the pandemic remains challenging
There are reasons to be optimistic about how 2021 may play out for the Canadian economy.
While the vaccine roll-out could be faster and the virus continues to challenge a return for many businesses and consumer spending; expectations of stronger recovery are rising.
TD Economics has revised its outlook for economic growth upwards to 6.0% for the whole of 2021, compared to its previous 4.9% forecast. This assumes growth of an average 5.3% in the second half of the year.
This growth will not be a sudden jump as slower easing of lockdown restrictions points to a more gradual rise from the second quarter onwards.
However, there is also some less positive data on jobs this week.
ADP Canada says that 100,800 jobs were lost between January and February, based on its nonfarm payroll data.
Leisure and hospitality remains the most-pressured sector with a net 35,200 jobs lost in the month, followed by trade/transportation and utilities (21,300 loss), and construction (down 17,200).
Among a few sectors posting net gains were professional/technical business services (up 4,400), manufacturing (up 2,200), and finance/real estate (up 800).
Business resilience
Meanwhile, a survey of small business owners by payroll software firm Wagepoint shows that 65% of respondents are optimistic that their business will recover when the pandemic is over, despite 60% saying that they have been negatively impacted over the past year.
"In spite of record employment losses in March 2020, demonstrated by a 70x jump in records of employment (ROEs), most small businesses have found ways to respond to radical change by pivoting their business models, adapting their workforce, leveraging relief programs and embracing new technologies in order to not only move forward but to thrive," said Shrad Rao, CEO, Wagepoint.
