Gold, energy, and digital assets take centre stage in Ninepoint's 2025 Market Outlook report
Ninepoint Partners LP has issued its ‘Ninepoint 2025 Market Outlook,’ addressing investment trends expected in the coming year across major sectors.
The report outlines developments in fixed income, energy, infrastructure, digital assets, and precious metals while also highlighting private credit opportunities.
In the report, Ninepoint co-CEOs James Fox and John Wilson remarked, “2024 has been a year defined for investors by inflation and interest rates, with the Bank of Canada and United States Federal Reserve both cutting rates to ease pressure on consumers.”
They added that monetary policy divergence is expected to dominate discussions in 2025.
They also noted that “all eyes are now on the new presidential administration in the US and how President-elect Donald Trump’s regulatory and policy agenda will affect investors across markets.”
Sector Highlights
Fixed Income
The report highlights that short-term bond prices in regions with the most monetary easing, such as Europe and Canada, will likely benefit in 2025. However, inflation risks and fiscal pressures in the US may create headwinds for long-term bonds.
“The divergence of monetary policy will offer opportunities for those with the flexibility to invest across borders,” said Mark Wisniewski, partner and head of Fixed Income at Ninepoint.
Energy
Ninepoint projects continued demand for oil, natural gas, and coal, countering the narrative of energy as a ‘sunset industry.’
Eric Nuttall, senior portfolio manager, stated, “Even with likely too-high non-OPEC supply growth forecasts in 2025 and modest demand growth, OPEC+ can now begin normalizing spare capacity without building inventories and negatively impacting price.”
He also expressed the belief that oil is mispriced due to erroneous views on spare capacity.
Global Infrastructure
Infrastructure investments are expected to thrive due to themes like the electrification of the US economy and energy transition.
“With electricity demand and the energy transition both continuing to accelerate, we see attractive opportunities across various infrastructure sub-sectors or sub-industries,” said Jeff Sayer, portfolio manager.
Digital Assets
The report projects a regulatory boost for digital assets under the Trump administration, anticipating stablecoin growth and increased institutional participation.
Bitcoin crossed $100,000 this year, and the industry expects further clarity from pro-crypto regulatory appointees.
Alex Tapscott, managing director, suggested that the next wave of AI growth will likely come from the application layer, such as software for fully autonomous cars or humanoid robot companions.
Precious Metals
Gold demand is expected to remain robust, with central bank purchases offsetting a decline in price-sensitive physical demand. The report also anticipates silver outperforming gold due to its industrial applications in clean energy and AI.
Nawojka Wachowiak, senior portfolio manager, stated, “In the second half of 2024, as gold prices continued to rise and costs stabilized, the gold sector hit an inflection point and free cash flow turned positive.”
Wachowiak added, “We expect the sector’s strong financial performance and improved capital returns to continue in 2025.”
Private Credit
Ninepoint forecasts increased deal-making activity in private credit, driven by falling interest rates and improved borrower performance.
David Sum, managing director, stated, “Sustained demand for private credit is expected over the long term, particularly if monetary policy adjustments support a soft landing for the economy.”
