June saw a slight increase in Canada's housing market activity following the Bank of Canada's rate cut
In June 2024, Canada's housing market showed early signs of renewed activity following the Bank of Canada's interest rate cut at the start of the month.
“It wasn't a 'blow the doors off' month by any means, but Canada's housing numbers did perk up a bit on a month-over-month basis in June following the first Bank of Canada rate cut,” stated Shaun Cathcart, CREA's senior economist.
“Year-over-year comparisons don't look great mainly because of how many buyers were still jumping into the market last spring, but that's a story about last year. What's happening right now is that sales were up from May to June, market conditions tightened for the first time this year, and prices nationally ticked higher for the first time in 11 months.”
National home sales increased by 3.7 percent month-over-month in June. Actual monthly activity, not seasonally adjusted, was 9.4 percent below June 2023. The number of newly listed properties rose 1.5 percent month-over-month.
The MLS Home Price Index (HPI) edged up 0.1 percent month-over-month but was down 3.4 percent year-over-year.
The actual national average sale price posted a 1.6 percent year-over-year decrease in June. Home sales activity recorded over Canadian MLS Systems climbed 3.7 percent between May and June 2024.
By the end of June 2024, about 180,000 properties were listed for sale on all Canadian MLS Systems, up 26 percent from a year earlier but still below historical averages of around 200,000 for this time of year.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the end-of-June supply number was only up 0.5 percent from the end of May, suggesting a potential slowdown in the national inventory buildup.
New listings increased by 1.5 percent month-over-month in June, led by the Greater Toronto Area and British Columbia's Lower Mainland.
The national increase in new listings was smaller than the sales gain in June, tightening the national sales-to-new listings ratio to 53.9 percent compared to 52.8 percent in May.
The long-term average for this ratio is 55 percent, with a ratio between 45 percent and 65 percent generally indicating balanced housing market conditions.
“The second half of 2024 is widely expected to see the beginnings of a slow and gradual return of buyers into the housing market,” commented James Mabey, chair of CREA.
“Those buyers will face a considerably different shopping experience depending on where they are in Canada, from multiple offers in places like Calgary, to the most inventory to choose from in over a decade in places like Toronto. Wherever you live, or might like to, you'll need a solid game plan, so contact a REALTOR in your area today.”
At the end of June 2024, there were 4.2 months of inventory on a national basis, down from 4.3 months at the end of May. This was the first month-over-month decrease in inventory in 2024. The long-term average is about five months of inventory.
The National Composite MLS Home Price Index (HPI) increased by 0.1 percent from May to June, marking the first month-over-month gain in 11 months.
Regionally, prices are generally stable across much of the country. Exceptions include Calgary, Edmonton, and Saskatoon, and to a lesser extent Montreal and Quebec City, where prices have steadily risen since the beginning of last year.
Recently, there have been upward movements in prices in other markets, such as Ontario cottage country, Mississauga, Hamilton-Burlington, Kitchener-Waterloo, Cambridge, London-St. Thomas, and Halifax-Dartmouth.
The non-seasonally adjusted National Composite MLS HPI was 3.4 percent below June 2023, reflecting how prices surged last April, May, June, and July, which has not been repeated in 2024.
The actual national average home price was $696,179 in June 2024, down 1.6 percent from June 2023.
