Fewer temporary residents and shifting migration trends drive Canada's slowest population growth in years
Canada’s population reached 41,528,680 on January 1, reflecting an increase of 63,382 people since October 1, 2024, according to Statistics Canada.
The quarterly growth rate of 0.2 percent marks a continued slowdown from the third quarter of 2023 peak of 1.1 percent. This is the slowest growth rate since the fourth quarter of 2020, when COVID-19 border restrictions were in effect.
Decline in temporary residents slows population growth
A key factor in the slowdown was a decrease in non-permanent residents. Between October 1, 2024, and January 1, the number of non-permanent residents fell by 28,341.
This was the first quarterly decline since late 2021 and the largest drop since the third quarter of 2020, when border restrictions were in place.
Before 2022, it was common for non-permanent residents to decline in the fourth quarter, as many permits expire at year-end.
While increases in 2022 and 2023 were primarily driven by work permit holders, the most recent decline was largely due to a drop in study permit holders.
In the fourth quarter of 2024, the number of individuals holding only a study permit fell by 32,643, while work permit holders—including those who may have also had study permits—declined by 18,435.
Meanwhile, the number of asylum claimants and protected persons continued to increase for the 12th consecutive quarter, reaching a record 457,285 people.
According to BNN Bloomberg, Canada’s population growth in 2024 was the slowest in three years, reflecting a decline in immigration. The 1.8 percent annual growth rate was significantly lower than the 3.1 percent in 2023 and 2.5 percent in 2022.
For much of the past three years, population growth had been driven by record-high numbers of international students, foreign workers, and refugees.
However, government restrictions on temporary residents, introduced by former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government, have begun reducing new arrivals.
These policy changes come amid increasing concerns over housing shortages and rising unemployment.
The shift in public sentiment toward immigration has influenced political positions ahead of the upcoming federal election.
Prime Minister Mark Carney and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre have both stated that future immigration levels should align with economic and infrastructure capacity.
Annual population growth driven by early-year migration
Canada’s annual population growth rate for 2024 stood at 1.8 percent, with 744,324 new residents added. While lower than the growth rates in 2022 and 2023, this remains higher than any year from 1972 to 2021.
The bulk of the increase—67.7 percent—occurred in the first two quarters.
International migration remains the primary driver of population growth. In 2024, government policies aimed at limiting the number of non-permanent residents contributed to the slower growth in the second half of the year.
Despite these restrictions, international migration accounted for 98.5 percent of the population increase in the fourth quarter and 97.3 percent over the entire year.
The number of non-permanent residents grew by 291,165 in 2024, significantly lower than the 820,766-increase recorded in 2023. Most of the growth occurred in the first half of the year, with only a net gain of 18,846 people in the second half.
Permanent immigration aligns with government targets
Canada admitted 103,481 permanent immigrants in the fourth quarter of 2024, consistent with levels seen from 2021 to 2023.
Over the full year, 483,591 permanent immigrants were welcomed, aligning with the 2024-2026 Immigration Levels Plan set by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada.
This marked the highest number of annual immigrants since 1972.
Several provinces and territories, including Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Alberta, Yukon, the Northwest Territories, and Nunavut, recorded record-high immigration levels.
Population declines in parts of Atlantic Canada
Three of the four Atlantic provinces saw slight population declines in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Newfoundland and Labrador (-301 people), Prince Edward Island (-21 people), and Nova Scotia (-49 people) recorded losses due to a combination of fewer non-permanent residents, negative natural increases, lower immigration levels, and interprovincial migration patterns.
Before 2021, it was common for these provinces to experience negative quarterly growth, a trend that had not occurred since the fourth quarter of 2020. These patterns suggest a return to pre-pandemic demographic shifts.
Meanwhile, Alberta (+0.6 percent), Saskatchewan (+0.3 percent), and Manitoba (+0.3 percent) experienced the fastest growth among the provinces.
Yukon and Nunavut recorded 0.4 percent growth each, while the Northwest Territories saw an increase of 0.3 percent. Manitoba’s population surpassed 1.5 million for the first time, reaching 1,504,023.
Interprovincial migration remains below pandemic highs
Interprovincial migration levels were lower in the fourth quarter of 2024 than in previous quarters, following typical seasonal patterns. The number of interprovincial migrants (46,980) was lower than in the same period in 2021, 2022, and 2023 but similar to pre-pandemic levels.
Alberta recorded the highest net gain from interprovincial migration (+5,292 migrants) in the fourth quarter. Nova Scotia (+344), New Brunswick (+252), and Nunavut (+64) were the only other regions with net positive migration.
Over the entire year, Alberta gained 36,082 people from interprovincial migration, though this was lower than its 2023 increase of 42,243. Quebec saw its smallest net loss from interprovincial migration (-1,901) since 2003.
Long-term challenges for population growth
While immigration remains the primary driver of population growth, birth rates continue to decline. Only 2.7 percent of new residents in 2024 were the result of natural increase.
As Canada’s aging population presents long-term demographic challenges, future governments will need to balance short-term immigration policies with economic and infrastructure planning.
