Canadian payroll employment drops by 21,100 as labour market cools

Statistics Canada reported that payroll employment, as measured in the Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours, fell by 21,100 (0.1 percent) in October 2024.

This followed minimal changes in September and August. On a year-over-year basis, payroll employment rose by 125,800 (0.7 percent). Job vacancies also declined, falling by 15,000 (2.8 percent) to 513,200 in October, after a 16,700 (3.1 percent) decrease in August.

Since May 2022, when job vacancies peaked at over one million, the number of vacant positions has dropped by 48.9 percent.

In October, payroll employment declines were observed in 7 of 20 sectors. The largest drops occurred in manufacturing (-5,900; -0.4 percent), professional, scientific and technical services (-3,700; -0.3 percent), and accommodation and food services (-3,500; -0.3 percent).

However, these losses were partially offset by increases in retail trade (+4,200; +0.2 percent), construction (+3,400; +0.3 percent), public administration (+3,300; +0.3 percent), and health care and social assistance (+3,300; +0.1 percent).

The remaining nine sectors showed little change.

The manufacturing sector saw payroll employment decline by 5,900 (0.4 percent) in October, continuing a downward trend from its peak in June 2023. Between June 2023 and October 2024, manufacturing employment fell by 18,200 (1.2 percent).

Key contributors to the decline included transportation equipment manufacturing (-8,000; -3.9 percent), furniture and related product manufacturing (-3,500; -5.3 percent), and computer and electronic product manufacturing (-2,700; -4.8 percent).

In the professional, scientific and technical services sector, payroll employment fell by 3,700 (0.3 percent) in October, marking the third consecutive monthly decline.

Since August 2024, the sector has lost 7,400 (0.6 percent) jobs, with the majority of these losses concentrated in computer systems design and related services (-5,700; -1.5 percent).

Despite these declines, payroll employment in computer systems design remains 43.1 percent higher than its pre-pandemic annual average in 2019.

Accommodation and food services recorded its second consecutive monthly decline, with payroll employment down 3,500 (0.3 percent) in October, following an 8,400 (0.6 percent) drop in September.

Full-service and limited-service restaurants accounted for most of these losses, with payroll employment in this industry declining by 14,000 (1.4 percent) over two months.

Year over year, payroll employment in accommodation and food services decreased by 13,700 (1.0 percent).

Retail trade employment rose by 4,200 (0.2 percent) in October, partially offsetting a decline of 8,400 (0.4 percent) in September. Despite this increase, the sector has experienced a net decline of 21,200 (1.1 percent) since February 2024.

Job losses in the sector have been concentrated in sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, and miscellaneous retailers (-9,000; -4.2 percent), building material and garden equipment dealers (-7,900; -5.5 percent), and clothing and accessories retailers (-6,700; -3.2 percent).

Gains in food and beverage retailers (+4,400; +0.8 percent), health and personal care retailers (+3,000; +1.4 percent), and motor vehicle dealers (+2,300; +1.0 percent) helped temper the overall decline.

Construction employment rose by 3,400 (0.3 percent) in October, marking the sector's first monthly increase since June. Year over year, payroll employment in construction increased by 14,300 (1.2 percent), driven primarily by gains in specialty trade contractors (+15,000; +2.2 percent).

This growth was dampened by declines in heavy and civil engineering construction (-2,200; -1.2 percent). Employment in non-residential building construction rose by 1,500 (1.2 percent), while residential building construction remained steady.

In October, average weekly earnings increased by 0.5 percent month over month, reaching $1,284. On a year-over-year basis, average weekly earnings rose by 5.3 percent. These gains reflect changes in wages, employment composition, hours worked, and base-year effects.

However, average weekly hours worked decreased by 0.3 percent month over month and year over year, reaching 33.4 hours in October.

Job vacancies fell by 15,000 (2.8 percent) in October, with declines across five sectors.

Retail trade saw the largest drop (-5,700; -12.1 percent), followed by transportation and warehousing (-5,600; -18.7 percent), manufacturing (-4,600; -13.2 percent), other services (-4,400; -16.8 percent), and finance and insurance (-2,900; -15.5 percent).

The health care and social assistance sector was the only one to record an increase, with job vacancies rising by 7,700 (6.7 percent).

Year over year, job vacancies decreased in 15 sectors. The largest declines were observed in accommodation and food services (-23,500; -29.8 percent), retail trade (-22,500; -35.2 percent), construction (-20,700; -34.9 percent), and health care and social assistance (-19,900; -14.1 percent).

Among the provinces, Alberta experienced a decline in job vacancies, falling by 8,700 (12.0 percent) to 63,700 in October, while Manitoba saw an increase of 2,300 (12.0 percent) to 21,900.

Job vacancies remained steady in the other provinces.

Year over year, the job vacancy rate decreased in nine provinces, with the largest declines observed in British Columbia, Quebec, and Newfoundland and Labrador (each down 1.1 percentage points).

British Columbia, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba had the highest job vacancy rates at 3.5 percent, while Newfoundland and Labrador recorded the lowest at 2.1 percent.