Canadian home sales drop 20% since November peak, CREA cites tariff fallout and market caution
National home sales in Canada declined for the fourth consecutive month, with activity across Canadian MLS Systems falling 4.8 percent in March 2025 compared to February.
According to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), national home sales are now 20 percent below the recent high recorded in November 2024.
CREA’s Senior Economist Shaun Cathcart attributed earlier declines in home sales to tariff uncertainty.
He said, “Going forward, the Canadian housing space will also have to contend with the actual economic fallout. In short order we’ve gone from a slam dunk rebound year to treading water at best.”
CREA Chair Valérie Paquin noted that while falling monthly sales have been observed nationwide, “there are still many regions where sales are high, inventory is near record lows, and prices are rising.”
CREA reported that on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, March 2025 sales dropped 9.3 percent year-over-year—the lowest level for the month since 2009.
At the same time, the number of newly listed properties rose 3 percent month-over-month. This led to a decrease in the national sales-to-new listings ratio to 45.9 percent, down from 49.7 percent in February.
The March figure marks the lowest reading for this measure since February 2009.
CREA considers a long-term national average of 54.9 percent as balanced, with ranges between 45 and 65 percent generally reflecting balanced conditions.
National inventory stood at 165,800 properties at the end of March, an 18.3 percent increase from the previous year. This remains below the long-term average of approximately 174,000 listings for this time of year.
There were 5.1 months of inventory nationally at the end of March, the highest since early 2020. CREA’s long-term average for months of inventory is five months.
A market with less than 3.6 months would indicate seller-favourable conditions, while one above 6.4 months would favour buyers.
The National Composite MLS Home Price Index (HPI) fell 1 percent from February to March, the largest monthly drop since November 2023.
The index was down 2.1 percent compared to March 2024. The non-seasonally adjusted national average sale price for March was $678,331, down 3.7 percent year-over-year.
CREA identified the renewed decline in prices as most significant in British Columbia and Ontario’s Greater Golden Horseshoe. Prices continued to rise across the Prairies, Quebec, and the East Coast.
In a revised forecast, CREA expects 482,673 homes to be sold in 2025, a 0.2 percent decrease compared to previous projections of an 8.6 percent increase.
The national average home price is projected to fall 0.3 percent to $687,898, about $30,000 lower than the estimate issued in early January.
CREA anticipates small average price declines in British Columbia and Ontario.
Other provinces are expected to see average price increases between three and five percent in 2025.
National sales are projected to rise 2.9 percent in 2026 to 496,487 units, which would still fall short of the half-million mark for a fourth consecutive year.
According to Global News, CREA linked the March market downturn to tariffs introduced by US President Donald Trump.
The association indicated that economic and trade uncertainty affected both demand and pricing.
Clay Jarvis, a mortgage expert at NerdWallet Canada, called the 20 percent sales drop since November a “shock.”
He stated that April could bring worse results due to what he described as “peak tariff hysteria.”
However, he suggested that if tariffs continue to be rolled back, buyers may return to the market ahead of summer.
City News Toronto reported that buyer hesitancy is not based on household finances but on broader discomfort and uncertainty.
Phil Soper, CEO of Royal LePage Canada, said, “It’s not structural; it has nothing to do with household finances or savings; people are uncomfortable, and when you’re uncomfortable, it’s harder to make a big decision.”
He highlighted markets in Windsor, central Quebec, and Alberta as regions to watch.
While downtown Toronto’s condo market currently sees oversupply, lowered interest rates have allowed buyers to include conditions such as inspections and financing in their offers—options that were more difficult to negotiate in previous years.
Francesco Porretta, a real estate agent with Forest Hill Real Estate Brokerage, said that despite the uncertainty, “buyers are buying,” and noted that more flexible conditions are returning to transactions.
He suggested that current market conditions may benefit certain buyers.
Experts suggest that the full impact of tariffs and the broader trade environment remains to be seen across the Canadian real estate market.
