As US water shortages worsen, past proposals to divert Canada’s water raise concerns about future conflicts
Thomas Kierans, a former engineering professor and infrastructure visionary, was stopped by a reporter in St. John’s, Newfoundland and Labrador, on his 100th birthday.
According to a Financial Post feature, he reflected on his ambitious but unrealized projects.
Known locally as a treasure, he had proposed the Rock Arena, a venue carved into the city’s Southside Hills, and a fixed-link tunnel connecting Newfoundland and Labrador.
His most ambitious idea, conceived in the 1950s, was inspired by Dutch dyke methods.
Kierans envisioned the Great Recycling and Northern Development Canal, which proposed damming James Bay to create a vast freshwater reserve.
Seasonal runoff and surrounding rivers would replenish the basin, supplying fresh water to the Great Lakes, Canadian Prairies, and the American Southwest.
He estimated the project would cost $100bn, with 90 percent of the water destined for US export, financed through usage fees.
“I think the good lord wants me to stick around for that one,” Kierans told the reporter.
However, he passed away months after his centennial, years before former US President Donald Trump initiated a trade war with Canada.
Trump’s rhetoric on natural resources has resurfaced, particularly regarding Canada’s abundant freshwater.
During a September discussion about the Columbia River, he suggested controlling a “faucet” in British Columbia to divert water to drought-prone California.
Trump’s remark highlighted the reality that Canada has vast freshwater reserves, while the southwestern US faces shortages. Several American regions, including Florida, Atlanta, and the Norfolk naval base in Virginia, experience severe water crises.
The Rio Grande often runs dry due to irrigation, and the Colorado River faces increased strain among the seven states relying on it.
Canada, with its two million freshwater lakes and shared Great Lakes, holds about 20 percent of the planet’s freshwater reserves. Lake Superior alone contains enough water to submerge North and South America under 10 centimetres of water.
The Great Lakes region is economically significant, with an $8tn economy that would rank third in the world if independent. However, water access is restricted by diplomatic agreements, preventing large-scale diversions.
Historically, water-related agreements between Canada and the US operated on an honour system, according to Daniel Macfarlane, an environmental studies professor at Western Michigan University.
He noted that a leader disregarding agreements could create significant challenges.
The Great Lakes Compact, signed in 2008 by then-US President George W. Bush, enforces strict protections on water use.
Ontario and Quebec have parallel agreements ensuring that water removals must be replenished.
Despite protections, Trump reportedly expressed a desire to dismantle the Great Lakes agreements, according to a New York Times report. This message was allegedly conveyed to Canadian officials by Howard Lutnick, the US Secretary of Commerce.
With the American Southwest experiencing a prolonged mega-drought, future administrations could challenge existing agreements to secure water for regions like California and Arizona.
Kierans was not alone in proposing Canadian water exports.
In the 1960s, the North American Water and Power Alliance (NAWAPA), developed by the Ralph M. Parsons Co., suggested diverting water from Alaskan and Canadian rivers through the Rocky Mountain trench.
The project aimed to replenish the Great Lakes and create a seaway to Alberta. Estimated to cost US$25bn in labour and materials, it ultimately collapsed due to financial and environmental concerns.
Peter Annin, director of the Mary Griggs Burke Center for Freshwater Innovation at Northland College, believes that large-scale water diversions are unlikely. Instead, he sees growing investments in wastewater recycling.
El Paso, Texas, is constructing the first direct wastewater-to-drinking-water plant in the US, costing US$295m.
Cities like Los Angeles and San Diego aim to recycle 100 percent of their wastewater by 2035, reducing reliance on external sources.
Meanwhile, commercial fishers in the Great Lakes region face uncertainty due to US trade policies.
John Neate, CEO of Great Lakes Food Co. Ltd., exports smelt to California and Japan.
With the US imposing tariffs, his company and others in the $300m Canadian Great Lakes fishery industry could face significant losses.
Vito Figliomeni, executive director of the Ontario Commercial Fisheries’ Association, expressed concerns about the US Environmental Protection Agency’s budget cuts under Trump.
Reductions in funding have hindered efforts to control invasive species like sea lampreys, which threaten fish populations.
Trump’s prior attempts to slash Great Lakes Restoration Initiative funding by 90 percent were blocked, but future cuts remain a concern.
Gail Krantzberg, a professor at McMaster University, warns that diminishing US environmental oversight could lead to increased pollution and invasive species in the Great Lakes.
She noted that cross-border cooperation has weakened, with American officials reportedly instructed not to communicate with Canadian counterparts.
If funding for wastewater infrastructure declines, pollution levels in Lake Erie could worsen, while reduced efforts to block Asian carp from entering the Great Lakes could damage the region’s multi-billion-dollar fishery.
Krantzberg suggests a potential economic shift: rather than moving water to dry regions, people may migrate to water-rich areas like the Great Lakes.
Cities such as Buffalo and Rochester, which have experienced population decline, could attract new residents seeking water access.
She envisions a future where Americans relocate to the Great Lakes region, strengthening its economy while maintaining its freshwater resources.
