CREA says it's expecting better times ahead despite subdued stats
The Canadian housing market has not been a comfortable one for residential real estate investors and other homeowners in the past year – but better times may be around the corner.
While nationwide sales were down almost 6% month-over-month in December, they were 13% above where they were in May, just before the Bank of Canada made its first interest rate cut. And quarterly stats show a 10% rise quarter-over-quarter to produce historically strong quarterly activity.
The Canadian Real Estate Association’s data shows that actual activity (rather than seasonally adjusted) was up 19% in December compared to a year earlier, while the actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average sale price was up 2.5% year-over-year.
Not surprising then that CREA’s senior economist Sean Cathcart is upbeat.
“The number of homes sold across Canada declined in December compared to a stronger October and November, although that was likely more of a supply story than a demand story,” he explained. “Our forecast continues to be for a significant unleashing of demand in the spring of 2025, with the expected bottom for interest rates coinciding with sellers listing properties for sale in big numbers once the snow melts.”
Those looking to buy a home in December were constrained by a lack of choice as new listings declined for a third straight month (by 1.7%) and while the 128,000 properties available on Canada’s MLS systems was almost 8% higher than a year earlier, it was below the 150,000 long-term average.
The 3.9 months of inventory available also kept the market closer to a seller’s market (below 3.6 months) than a buyer’s market (above 6.5 months) and is well below the long-term average of 5 months.
“While housing market activity may take a breather over the winter with fewer properties for sale, the fall market rebound serves as a good preview of what could happen this spring,” said James Mabey, CREA Chair. “Spring in real estate always comes earlier than both sellers and buyers anticipate. The outlook is for buyers to start coming off the sidelines in big numbers in just a few months from now.”
